Baltimore Sun, May 13, 2007:
"The problem is that the tax code was set up for an economy that no longer exists, a tax code based on a manufacturing economy," Willis says. "We no longer have a manufacturing economy. The result is every time there is a downturn in the economic cycle, revenues do not keep pace with expenditures."
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The structural deficit works like this: The books might be balanced today, but future spending commitments do not match revenue projections. It's as if your home budget is balanced, but you have just bought a new house and have a much larger mortgage payment coming up -- and your paycheck remains the same.
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Examples of services that could be taxed, in [College Park economics Professor Mahlon] Straszheim's view, include landscaping work, fitness facilities, haircuts and the labor -- not just the parts -- when you get your car repaired.
A core concept in tax planning is the elasticity of the tax base to different taxes. In other words, how much and precisely how will businesses, residents, etc., change their behavior in response to a given tax.
Presumably, a smaller tax will usually produce a lower elasticity or "dodge" effect than will a higher tax on the same base. The imposition of a totally new tax may have additional impact "above its weight class" than the mere increase in a small tax. In other words, there may be a LOT more change in behavior between imposing a tax rate on X at a rate of 5%, than bumping such a tax from a preexisting 1% to 5%. This is in part because effects on multiple taxation parties may occur at the very first imposition of a tax, some responses being rational and some perhaps not. A classic example is the parent who drives 120 miles from Baltimore to Reading, Pennsylvania to save 50 dollars in sales taxes on clothing (assuming she is expecting to spend $1,000 retail) but does not check before putting 240 miles on her car whether the prices are actually likely to be lower in PA. Burning Annapolis out of 50 bucks becomes more important than preserving 250 miles on a working automobile, gasoline, some tolls and the time/money value of losing 4 hours minimum in round-trip transit. Maybe prices are lower in Reading but it's the sales tax that gets people motivated.
Merchants likewise may respond to the imposition of a sales tax by trying to shift marketing to softer markets, maybe cutting very low profit items (i.e. if each sale is an extra tax and paperwork burden, maybe a higher average receipt is a better strategy) or attempting to avoid taxes through re-characterizing or re-structuring the transaction (e.g. weighing an untaxed "service" more heavily in pricing than a taxed "good" when both goods and services or a mixed service are sold.)
Another issue is evasion. Presumably, as the rate of taxation increases, the cost-benefit analysis of cheating increases. Income tax cheating in the U.S. is relatively low - present, but low. Most businesses don't skim meaningfully and in the age of electronic transactions even restaurants are getting more compliant at reporting imputed tips for waitstaff. In many European countries, infamously Belgium and Italy, tax evasion is more common than adultery, maybe more common than speeding. In those countries, particularly Belgium, a taxpayer who pays all of his taxes is regarded as the world's biggest idiot and sap by his neighbors. Intimate friends are said to share the details of that new "trust" in Luxembourg, Switzerland, etc. Rates are higher in Belgium and Italy and Germany and Canada than they are in the U.S; all of those countries report more substantial rates of cheating than does the U.S.
Sometimes sales taxes motivate evaders. I was once acquainted with a member of a Native Nation which had reservation property on both sides of the U.S.-Canada border (I don't know whether the term "reservation" is used in Canada.) He made his pocket money smuggling cigarettes in a boat across the border between New York and Ontario, taking evasive advantage of high-tax Ontario and its high-paying customers who would gladly buy untaxed tobacco.
Taxation of income can induce a great variety of responses, from decreasing the marginal propensity to earn (because less valuable profit is left) to increasing the marginal propensity to earn (because a base-line income is crucial, even if earned inefficiently per hour) to moving out of the state to avoid taxes - to outright evasion. Few people will move out of state if their income is taxed at 6% rather than 5%, but it might make the difference for a new, incoming resident working in DC. Or not. Cheaper not to move, not to pay for a real estate agent, transfer taxes, etc. Determining this elasticity of the tax base is a matter for economists and statisticians.
Back to Maryland. Maryland has some rather arbitrary taxes imposed on sales of most goods and the rental of many goods, along with a substantial income tax. Some services are taxed under the sales and use tax, but most are not. A budget shortfall looms. Thoughts?
Labels: Maryland, tax, transit