Tonight,
An Inconvenient Truth won an Oscar for Best Documentary. Despite rumors that a few million conservatives would blow a major artery in at least one vital organ upon hearing such news, that probably did not happen (or if it did happen, it would be an extraordinary claim requiring extraordinary proof.)
The movie and the general topic of climate change are specific examples of a general phenomenon: how does one distinguish agenda-driven propaganda from science? More specifically, how does a lay person - one not formally trained in climatology or even in any scientific discipline or field - evaluate scientific claims? By analogy, how does a non-historian smoke out agenda-driven revisionist pseudo-history from new historical perspectives? And to what extent, in science or history, does the boundary between agenda-driven models and objective research truly exist?
Alon Levy of Abstract Nonsense has a provocative post on the
broader topic of scientific knowledge. I won't cut and paste from his piece (because he has wisely elected to prevent by technical means random-ripoffs of his content,
which seems wise) but one of his core theses is that in 2007, a non-scientist is most reasonable in accepting the dominant view of scientific community in most fields such as evolutionary biology, chemistry, physics and climatology.
Two professional colleagues of mine have each advised me that they each believe that HIV does not cause AIDS, and cite minority scientific views in reference to that belief. My profession is attorney, not microbiologist, public health official or physician, and the two attorneys in question are both criminal defense attorneys, not attorneys for public health agencies or hospitals. At what point is it reasonable for me to accept this apparently extant but severely minority view, especially when my background is East Asian Studies?
For a number of years, I was active in the Libertarian Party, and in that experience met libertarians of a broad spectrum of views and emphasis. I met a few liberal-leaning ones like myself, who were primarily interested in issues such as strict separation of church and state, drug legalization and government non-interference in sexual matters. I was more or less "in for the program" on other issues but the issues that motivated me were the "lefty" issues, which is probably why I have adapted so comfortably to the liberal blogosphere, often to its sharpest left edge, since the Democratic Party is not very distinguishable on most such matters from the centrist GOP positions.
But in the LP, I got to meet people with some
very unusual views about taxes, i.e. that I did not have to pay income tax on my U.S. wages. I won't go into their shtick here, but I considered their members fools and their leaders criminals. General rule: if you are a U.S. citizen OR make money in the United States from any source, do not believe anyone who tells you that you don't have to pay U.S. income taxes, unless that person has legal malpractice insurance and shows you his or her policy number, binder number and maximum amount of coverage per claim. Since I knew something about the U.S. income tax code from law school and the (then) 80 years of jurisprudence that had occurred since the passage of the 16th Amendment, I was able to debunk their garbage. For the record, the LP itself seeks to abolish U.S. individual taxes, rather than to deny their unpleasant current existence and applicability.
The jurisprudential theory that U.S. income taxes do not apply to U.S. citizen wage earners earning wages here has met with no precedent support in the last 90 years. No law review articles in any law review at any accredited law school have ever entertained the theory. No precedent on point exists. What does exist are jail cells for those who refuse to file and report all income. If your jurisprudential theory belongs to you and your pals alone, and no two members of Congress thinks it's true, and no Supreme Court Justice (all of whom get assigned many tax cases annually) thinks it's true, and no tax law firm thinks it's true, and no Presidential candidate of any party with more than 1% of the electorate behind it thinks it's true, your theory is false. Even if you swear it has to be true, it's false. You do not have a colorable claim to the truth.
But I don't know as a non-scientist where to draw the line. Science and law are different. If the entire legal community thinks "no establishment of religion" means
separation of church and state, or even if only a large percentage does, that's what it means in both theory and practice. In science, microbiology and climate change and chemistry and evolutionary biology do not give a damn what you think; if you don't like it, go pouns sand. In history, it's a little grayer. History involves interpretation but certain core facts remain. You can claim that President Lincoln died of a crack overdose, but you have the problems of (a) all the witnesses at Ford's Theatre and in the room next door to the gunshot wound and (b) the reliably reported non-existence of the crack form of cocaine until the 1980s, and the attendant lack of an obvious dealer, crack pipe, etc. At the macro level, it becomes easier to play propaganda games. Did the Nazis use gas chambers at Auschwitz? While Auschwitz Kommandant
Rudolf Hoess boasted that they did upon his arrest and interrogation shortly after the liberation of Auschwitz, and the physical and documentary evidence on site were incredibly massive and damning and the eyewitnesses legion,
some revisionist historians will claim otherwise.
What tool does the amateur, the layman, use to separate cranks from valid provocative alternative theories? Particularly in an age of information overload? What are the hallmarks of
crankitude or worse, versus provocative but legitimate alternative theories? Is their a grand theory of crankitude which allows for grand vaccine or treatment, or is it all purely a fact- and detail-driven and labor-intensive effort to country crank with fact?
UPDATE: there is another form of historical revisionism: moron revisionism, the kind that says that
Hitler defeated Stalin in World War II.
Labels: crank, history, law, science