Baltimore Sun: Black Turnout and a Dead Heat Race for Governor Click HERE to Bring Up Full Post

From the Baltimore Sun, November 1, 2006:

The new survey shows O'Malley with 47 percent of the vote and Ehrlich with 46 percent. Green Party candidate Ed Boyd had 2 percent, with 5 percent undecided.

...

A major question in the race is black turnout. The poll showed that the traditionally Democratic constituency is still heavily supporting O'Malley, despite Ehrlich's efforts to make inroads among African-Americans.

O'Malley leads among black voters, 74 percent to 9 percent, while Ehrlich leads among whites, 53 percent to 40 percent.

...

The poll is modeled on an estimate that black voters will make up about 19 percent of the electorate. The figure, consistent with previous Sun polls, is based on generally lower African-American turnout in nonpresidential elections, Haller said.

Ehrlich has said his polling assumes black turnout at 21 percent; O'Malley aides have said they expect the figure will be at least 22 percent.

What I want to know is how the numbers break down for Steele-Cardin for different turnout models, and how many O'Malley-Steele and Ehrlich-Cardin cross-voters there are, broken down by race or not.